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Agnieszka Sewron - Wilczek

Aviation center of gravity



Mateusz Klimek is an expert in airline network planning and has been professionally involved in aviation since 2012. He gained his professional experience by planning the LOT Polish Airlines route network, managing strategic projects for Spain's Iberia in Madrid, and handling long-term planning of the transatlantic network as part of the Atlantic Joint Venture between IAG and American Airlines in Dallas. For nearly three years, he has been working for the Lufthansa Group, where he develops planning tools used by customers worldwide. He holds a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Warsaw.


Mateusz Klimek talks to Agnieszka Serwon - Wilczek, an experienced aviation expert, about the secrets of planning an airline and his very interesting career in the industry.


Agnieszka Wilczek: Mateusz, you’ve been working in aviation for 13 years; the career path you’re following is quite unusual… How did you get into aviation?

 

Mateusz Klimek: My passion for aviation began during my first flight, which led me to start training towards a PPL(A) pilot license. However, I quickly realized that it wasn’t the cockpit, but the business side of aviation that fascinated me the most. My first professional steps in this industry were during my studies in China, where I worked as an Assistant Station Manager for LOT Polish Airlines. It was a valuable and demanding experience, giving me direct insight into airline operations. Unfortunately, just like today, the lack of access to Siberian airspace significantly increased operating costs, which eventually led to the route being closed.

 

 

My master’s thesis, which drastically changed the network philosophy of LOT”

 

 

AW: Soon after, you started working at LOT's headquarters, and thanks to your passion and knowledge, you ended up in the Network Planning Department, where you performed exceptionally well.

 

MK: During high school and my studies, I spent a lot of time on aviation forums, where lively discussions about new routes took place. It was my first contact with network planning, as true experts and industry professionals participated in these forums.


I learned so much that at the end of 2011, I decided to send a rather bold email to the then-president of LOT, mr Marcin Piróg, presenting my ideas for LOT’s network strategy. I didn’t expect to receive a reply three hours later, inviting me to a job interview.

And so, to cut a long story short, I landed in the heart of the airline—in the Network Planning Department. At the time I worked for LOT, it was still a relatively small carrier, allowing me to closely collaborate with people from various departments such as Sales, Revenue Management, Flight Operations, and Ground Handling. This gave me broad knowledge and an understanding of many key interdependencies in the industry.

 

A particularly interesting experience was participating in the restructuring of LOT, which was then on the verge of bankruptcy. I was able to implement the concept from my master’s thesis, which drastically changed the network philosophy of LOT. That was when LOT stopped feeding passengers from regional airports to Frankfurt, Munich, and Vienna, focusing solely on its own hub in Warsaw. I remember that period very fondly and must admit, I learned more at LOT than anywhere else.

 

AW:  But LOT didn’t hold onto you for long… you disappeared after 4 years.

 

MK: At LOT, I had the opportunity to work on key projects, such as building the network, preparing business analyses for new destinations, and restructuring the hub in Warsaw. Despite these challenges, after a while, I started to feel a lack of further growth opportunities. My then-supervisor advised me to look for a job abroad. It was a bit shocking, but I am very grateful for that advice. Shortly after, I applied for a job at Iberia in Spain and received an offer to work in Madrid, which I accepted without much hesitation.

 

AW: Did you need a change of climate or a change in responsibilities?

 

MK: I needed a new challenge, and this job was a significant shift. I took on larger-scale projects, such as Iberia's long-term network strategy or launching IAG Group's long-haul low-cost carrier, Level Airlines. I also worked on fleet lease analyses, long-term growth strategy in the Mexican market, and competitive analysis. After three years, I moved to a team based in Dallas, focusing on developing a strategic partnership between IAG, American Airlines, and Finnair.

 

AW: Indeed, you quickly transitioned from daily operational planning to macro-level, long-term concepts. It would seem there’s nothing more, but then…

 

MK: After years of planning, I found an area where my previous experience and knowledge could come together. I currently work on systems that support network planning. I help design system functionalities, implement them for customers worldwide, and conduct user training. I also spend a large part of my time acquiring new customers. I’m far from being an IT expert, but I understand exactly what our customers are struggling with and what they need, and I know how to help them. I believe that’s why I got this job.

 

 

The plan created "yesterday" is analyzed again "today," and at the same time, a plan for "tomorrow" is being developed. And so it goes on and on.

 

 

AW: If you had to summarize in a few sentences what network planning is all about and the challenges planners face, what would you say?

 

MK: I’d say that the goal of a network planner is to efficiently utilize an airline’s assets. Passenger aircraft are very expensive toys, costing millions or tens of millions of dollars per year. Planners are expected to design a network that not only covers the costs of leasing, fuel, crews, ground operations, etc., but most importantly, generates profit. A planner works to match supply with demand, considering both direct and connecting traffic, while taking into account market and competitive conditions. Planning involves not just the upcoming season but a longer time horizon. We plan not only for today’s customers but anticipate what the market will look like in the long term, for example, five years from now. The trick is to ensure that the network is profitable each year and is a long-term, cost-efficient investment.

 

To sum up, planning takes into account many variables, most of which are impossible to predict accurately in the long term. Planning is thus a continuous and cyclical task. The plan created "yesterday" is analyzed again "today," and at the same time, a plan for "tomorrow" is being developed. And so it goes on and on.

 

AW: You mentioned competition and market analysis. Where does a planner get information on the number of passengers or profitability on competitors’ routes? What are the forecasts based on?

 

MK: Airlines publish their financial reports, load factors, and overall passenger numbers, but no one discloses detailed data on specific routes. Each airline has its own traffic data but doesn’t have access to competitors’ precise figures. Many airlines share a certain range of transport data via participation in a database created by IATA, for example. This organization collects data from airlines, processes it, estimates the missing data, and then sells access to airlines worldwide. The cost of access to this database is very high. While low-cost carriers (LCCs) don’t need this type of data because their business model focuses on stimulating new demand through pricing, for network carriers, access to such data is essential.

 

AW: In the process of building a network, an important aspect is the issue of slots—their cost and availability.

 

MK: Planning flights to non-coordinated airports is rather straightforward. Coordinated destinations are a completely different story. Airports publish available slots, airlines submit requests, and those requests are analyzed, resulting in the allocation of a certain number of slots based on specific airport rules. Airlines usually request more slots than they need. After the initial slot allocation, the unused ones are returned and can be utilized by other airlines.

 

Some airports, like London Heathrow, have much higher demand for slots than availability. In such cases, airlines can exchange, trade, or lease their own slots to others. At Heathrow, slot prices are measured in millions of British pounds.

 

The lack of desired slots is a significant limitation in network planning. Routes are launched based on detailed business cases, which are always built around a specific flight schedule. Launching a route in slots that deviate significantly from the plan can negatively impact revenue forecasts, due to lost connecting flights, making the route unfeasible.

 

OB: How important are delays caused by ground stops, holding, or waiting for takeoff and landing when planning future operations?

 

MK: Delays play a major role in planning future routes for a simple reason: a passenger who misses a connection or important meeting due to an arrival delay is often a lost customer forever. Whether fair or not, the average passenger tends to blame the airline for not arriving on time or missing a connecting flight, except in cases of weather or air traffic control strikes.

 

A delayed arrival is a headache for any airline, much more than just having a dissatisfied customer.  Often, one delayed flight triggers a domino effect, delaying other departures due to transit traffic. When the delays are within the airline's control, passengers are entitled to compensation, which costs airlines millions annually.

 

Airport opening hours are also a crucial factor in planning. Many airports impose restrictions on night operations to reduce noise levels. If a delayed arrival occurs during restricted night hours, the airline may face a financial penalty. In extreme cases, a flight may be redirected to another airport, which results in additional costs for the airline.

 

Planners’ job is to design a route network resilient to potential delays. Planned gaps in aircraft rotations help mitigate small delays. A good practice, and practically necessary for large carriers, is to schedule backup aircraft that can replace a grounded plane or operate a flight at risk of delay. While this is costly, it helps avoid flight cancellations and the need for compensation payouts.

 

AW: As we approach the end of our meeting, let me ask about the trends you’re clearly observing in the industry. The world is accelerating its development, and aviation is one of the accelerators. What changes do you see happening before your eyes globally?

 

MK: Besides the obvious environmental trends, I see increasingly tough competition with Middle Eastern carriers and, more recently, Chinese (Mainland) airlines that are allowed to fly over Siberia, unlike European carriers.

 

European airlines, focused on profitability, have limited opportunities to invest in their growth and onboard product standards. In many countries, airlines are a tool for achieving certain economic goals, and their profitability, especially in the short term, takes a back seat. Not to mention the lack of unions, which either have limited influence on management or simply don’t exist. What I’m about to say may not be popular, but I’m not the biggest fan of an unconditional open skies policy. Unrestricted access to the European market for certain players negatively impacts continental carriers.

 

From a passenger’s perspective, all connections via the Persian Gulf or to China are, of course, desirable. From the perspective of European airlines, increased competition in these cases often leads to reduced competition. Airlines struggle to maintain connections to Gulf countries, which are dominated by local carriers. A more extreme case is the avalanche of European airlines closing routes to China, as they can't compete with Chinese (Mainland) carriers flying over Siberia (which is faster and cheaper).

 

In the end, the success and stable development of continental airlines should be a priority for our politicians. The stability and growth of European airlines mean maintaining and creating new jobs. The same applies to tax revenues, such as profit taxes. Reducing networks has the opposite effect.

 

“I get the impression that Germans are not interested in the CPK because they don’t fully believe in its realization.”

AW: How do you see Poland compared to what’s happening in other countries, living abroad?

 

MK: The Polish market is indeed growing rapidly, with more passengers every year. However, it is clear that there is a lack of a coherent, politically resistant, long-term, and consistently implemented aviation strategy in Poland. The CPK (Central Transportation Hub) topic resurfaces in public discourse every few years, and while I support it, I believe its progress is too slow, and the process has unfortunately been politicized.

 

AW: Living in Germany, you surely observe their reaction to the CPK. What is it?

 

MK: I get the impression that Germans are not interested in the CPK because they don’t fully believe in its realization. The project has been discussed for too long, lacking specifics, a realistic timeline, and a coherent vision. While the discussions and political maneuvering continue, the number of passengers is increasing, and the market abhors a vacuum. It’s unfortunate that LOT’s market share is shrinking, partly due to the lack of infrastructure needed for growth.

In my view, from a geopolitical perspective, Warsaw has a real chance to become a hub of European significance. I believe that even after the war in Ukraine ends, the role of some hubs in Europe will be different than before.

Moscow is unlikely to regain the transit role it once had—Russian airlines will find it difficult to rebuild passenger trust. It’s also unclear how bilateral agreements will take shape. It’s possible that Russian airlines’ access to European airspace, and vice versa, will be limited. This could significantly (negatively) affect Helsinki’s hub role. Kiev, for obvious reasons, is unlikely to play any transit role whatsoever.

 

Currently, Chopin Airport is too small, transfers are uncomfortable, and the lack of proper infrastructure makes it difficult to handle many large aircraft at once. It reminds me of the situation before the current terminal was built—the congestion during peak hours is not much different from the so-called “beetrootterminal [colloquial name based on the dominant color theme inside and outside of the terminal] in 2005. I hope the CPK is built, along with a rail hub that’s not over-ambitious, connecting it to key urban areas in Poland. This fits perfectly with the global trend of reducing short domestic flights due to environmental policies.

 

AW: How does a planner see the future of their industry?

 

MK: The analyses generated by systems will certainly become more precise, more data will be available, and planners will be able to spend more time on strategic and conceptual planning rather than wrestling with Excel. And looking locally and patriotically, the CPK will shift the aviation center of gravity closer to Eastern Europe, in line with the region's rapid economic growth.

 

AW: Thank you so much for the meeting, and we wish you success in your new venture in Frankfurt.

MK: I also thank the readers for their time with us.

 

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